Why the McRib Is Not a Reliable Signal for Bitcoin’s Next Price Move

Table of Contents

• You might want to know
• The McRib and Bitcoin: A Coincidental Connection?
• Key Insights Table
• Afterwards...

You might want to know

• Does the McRib’s return to McDonald’s menus reliably precede a Bitcoin price increase?
• Which upcoming market events may have a more meaningful influence on Bitcoin?

The McRib and Bitcoin: A Coincidental Connection?

In recent years, the McDonald’s McRib has become an unlikely character in cryptocurrency culture. Some traders point to the sandwich’s return to menus as a supposed sign that Bitcoin is about to rise. The idea is lighthearted and memorable: when the McRib comes back, they suggest, Bitcoin may follow with a rally. With the tangy pork sandwich returning in certain U.S. states, the meme has resurfaced and attracted attention from crypto traders.

One post captured the theory in especially confident terms: “The McRib is back on 10/27. BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don’t fade the McRib. Not financial advice.” The post was shared by internbrah on October 22, 2026. Its playful tone reflects the way the claim is generally discussed online, but the statement also illustrates a broader challenge in interpreting historical market patterns: a striking story can appear persuasive even when the underlying record does not support it consistently.

Researchers who have examined the supposed relationship say there is no reliable connection between the restaurant promotion and Bitcoin’s market performance. Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, told Decrypt that there is “no correlation at all”. He added that people repeating the McRib theory may leave out the occasions when the sandwich returned without Bitcoin rising. That selection of memorable examples can make a pattern seem stronger than it is.

Nolan shared a chart comparing the McRib’s U.S. return dates with Bitcoin’s weekly closing prices. The record shows that only three out of 10 McRib returns were followed by clearly positive Bitcoin returns. The other cases do not support the simple claim that a returning sandwich signals an upward move. In some instances, the return came before major declines in Bitcoin’s valuation. Looking at the full set of observations therefore gives a very different impression from focusing only on a few apparent successes.

This distinction matters because observing two events near one another does not establish that one caused the other—or even that they are statistically connected. Bitcoin prices respond to a wide range of market conditions, policy expectations, investor positioning and broader economic developments. A restaurant menu decision has no obvious path through which it would systematically change demand for Bitcoin. Without a plausible mechanism and consistent evidence, a sequence of coincidences is not a dependable forecasting tool.

Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, made a similar point to Decrypt. He said there is “no causal mechanism” linking the McRib’s return to Bitcoin’s price, and described any rise that happens afterward as a “funny coincidence.” In other words, even if Bitcoin goes up around the same time that the sandwich returns, timing alone does not show that the menu change drove the market move.

Nolan also considered the theory hypothetically, saying that even if the McRib seemed to indicate the start of a bull run, relying on it would be “quite nonsensical.” He compared the idea to attempts to connect Bitcoin’s movements with the release dates of the Dune movies. The connection may create an entertaining narrative, but an amusing coincidence is not equivalent to a useful analytical framework. Guzman likewise suggested that the crypto community may keep the theory alive precisely because it is “silly,” “obviously absurd,” and funny.

The joke is unfolding at a time when Bitcoin traders are paying closer attention to conventional market catalysts. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, described the market as being in “wait and see mode”, with traders watching for the Federal Reserve’s next move before placing larger bets. That outlook reflects the influence that monetary policy can have on borrowing costs, investor risk appetite and the demand for assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Decrypt data described Bitcoin’s activity over the past month as fairly limited, with the asset down 6% and sitting at $79,750 at the time covered by the report. The broader price display included a quoted BTC price of $80,562, a 24-hour change of −2.68%, a 24-hour high of $80,446, a 24-hour low of $79,416 and volume of $1.0B. These figures are snapshots from the source material, not predictions. They also illustrate why the exact timing and context of market data matter: different figures may refer to separate points or displays.

Monetary policy was among the central issues for investors. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the Consumer Price Index then rose 0.6% for the month. The Fed’s next rate decision was scheduled for Wednesday. Traders were watching for signs of whether policymakers would keep rates unchanged or tighten further, as either outcome could affect expectations for financial conditions and risk-sensitive assets.

Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt that the Fed decision was one of three potential catalysts expected over the next two weeks. The other two were an options expiry involving $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin on October 30 and the U.S. midterms on November 3. These events are more directly connected to financial markets, investor positioning or the wider economic environment than the McRib’s seasonal return, although their effects are not guaranteed.

Koch-Gallup outlined two possible scenarios. If the Fed kept rates the same and ETF inflows continued, he said he would expect a break upward. If the Fed raised rates again, he said the $75,000 to $77,000 floor would come back into play. These comments describe conditional possibilities, not certainty: market prices can respond in unexpected ways, and a widely anticipated decision may already be reflected in trading.

The central lesson is not that Bitcoin cannot rise while the McRib is available. It certainly can. Rather, the timing of those events does not establish that one predicts or causes the other. The source’s historical comparison found clear positive Bitcoin returns after only three out of 10 McRib returns, while other instances included substantial declines. By contrast, traders and analysts were monitoring the Federal Reserve, ETF inflows, a $11.69 billion options expiry and the U.S. midterms as factors with a more credible relationship to financial markets.

If Bitcoin rises as the McRib returns, the two events may once again appear connected in social media posts. But analysts’ point is that coincidence can be entertaining without being informative. A sound assessment should consider all observations, distinguish correlation from causation and give greater attention to developments that can plausibly affect market demand, liquidity or investor expectations.

Key Insights Table

Afterwards...

The McRib-and-Bitcoin story is likely to return whenever the sandwich comes back to menus, because memorable coincidences travel easily through online trading communities. Its popularity may continue as a joke, but it should not be confused with evidence of a dependable price pattern. Future Bitcoin moves will remain shaped by market conditions and events that can affect investor expectations, including monetary policy, fund flows and trading activity.

For readers following the market, the more useful approach is to treat playful correlations as conversation starters, not forecasts. Compare claims against the full historical record, ask whether a credible causal link exists and distinguish conditional analyst views from guaranteed outcomes. If Bitcoin rises around the McRib’s return, it may make for a catchy headline—but, based on the evidence described here, experts consider the timing coincidental.