Bitcoin ETFs End the Week Higher Despite Late Outflows

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $137.9 million on Friday and about $773.5 million over two days, but still finished the week with roughly $301 million in net inflows, ending a two-week losing streak. They remain down about $314 million for October. Ethereum ETFs have lost roughly $1.18 billion this month, while Solana ETFs are down about $68 million. Bitcoin fell 1.1% over 24 hours to about $80,490. On Myriad, traders put the odds of a drop to $77,500 before month-end at 43%, up from 32% a day earlier. The weekly gain came despite substantial late-week withdrawals.

Sentiment Analysis

• Overall sentiment is mixed: Bitcoin ETFs recovered enough during the week to record roughly $301 million in net inflows, but Friday’s $137.9 million outflow extended a two-day withdrawal trend. The result ends a two-week run of weekly losses without erasing October’s deficit.
• Investor mood appears cautious across the crypto market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices all declined over the cited 24-hour period, while prediction-market participants became more bearish about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. The chance of Bitcoin falling to $77,500 rose to 43% from 32% a day earlier; the odds of exceeding $87,500 fell to 10% from 17%.
• There are also countervailing signals. Ethereum ETF flows were slightly positive on Friday, and Myriad traders still assigned Ethereum a 61.3% chance of reaching $3,000 before $1,500. Bitcoin’s weekly ETF total remained positive, and a long-term projection cited in the article anticipated 10% annual returns over the next decade. These signals temper, but do not remove, the prevailing short-term uncertainty.

Article Text

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a volatile week with a modest net gain, despite a sharp reversal in flows late in the period. The funds recorded $137.9 million in outflows on Friday, their second consecutive day of withdrawals. Together, the two days brought outflows to about $773.5 million, reducing the impact of $1.07 billion in inflows recorded from Monday through Wednesday.

Even after those withdrawals, the funds finished the week with roughly $301 million in net inflows. That result ended a two-week stretch of weekly losses. However, the weekly improvement did not restore the funds to positive territory for October. They briefly moved into monthly gains in the middle of the week, but a $635.6 million withdrawal on Thursday—the largest daily exit of the month—pushed their monthly total back into the red. Bitcoin ETFs are now down about $314 million for October.

The longer-term totals remain substantially larger than the recent monthly losses. Cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin funds stand at $57.6 billion, and their total net assets amount to $100.2 billion. The funds hold the underlying asset and trade on stock exchanges like ordinary shares, allowing investors to gain exposure through brokerage accounts. Issuers report flows each day, and because institutions and financial advisers contribute much of the money, those figures are closely monitored as an indicator of investor sentiment.

Other crypto ETF categories recorded different results. Ethereum ETFs received a $4.4 million inflow on Friday but lost about $221 million over the week. Their October outflows total roughly $1.18 billion. Solana ETFs had no net flows on Friday, following $8.9 million in outflows on Thursday, and are down about $68 million for the month. Since their respective launches, Bitcoin funds have attracted $57.6 billion in net inflows since January 2024, while Ethereum funds have taken in $12.7 billion since launching in July 2024. Solana funds arrived late last year.

Prices weakened into the weekend. Bitcoin fell 1.1% over 24 hours to about $80,490 on Saturday and was down 1.2% for the week, according to CoinGecko. A separate market display in the report listed Bitcoin at $80,636, down 0.55%, with a 24-hour high of $80,949, a low of $79,534, and trading volume of $490.0M. The article also reported Ethereum down 2.6% to roughly $2,344 and Solana down 2.8% to about $101. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped 1.2% to $2.79 trillion.

The decline followed a midweek selloff in global markets, during which oil rose above $111 a barrel and AI stocks fell. Against that backdrop, participants on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, shifted toward a more cautious view of Bitcoin’s October price action. They assigned a 43% chance to Bitcoin falling to $77,500 before the month ended, up from 32% a day earlier. The probability of a decline to $75,000 was 18%.

Other Myriad estimates also showed reduced expectations for a near-term rally. The odds of Bitcoin rising above $87,500 fell to 10% from 17%. For Solana, the probability of reaching $160 before falling to $40 stood at 51.6%, down from 54.9%. Ethereum’s odds of reaching $3,000 before dropping to $1,500 remained unchanged at 61.3%. These figures represent market participants’ forecasts rather than guaranteed outcomes.

The week began with a more optimistic long-term outlook. J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected 10% annual returns for Bitcoin over the next decade. Since then, however, Bitcoin has moved into what analysts described as a “wait-and-see” mode, as investors weigh market weakness against longer-term expectations. The figures point to a contrast between a positive weekly ETF balance and persistent short-term caution across prices, monthly flows, and prediction markets.

Key Insights Table