Preface

The recent fluctuation in Bitcoin's value has stirred discussions among investors and analysts alike. As Bitcoin experienced a notable dip in late November, it reached levels that have historically marked significant market bottoms. An intriguing metric — the short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio — suggests that the recent downturn could represent the bottom, paving the way for potential growth in the coming months.

Lazy bag

Analysts observe that the short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio's drop to 0.013 signifies potential market lows. As history suggests, this pattern aligns with previous bottoms, foreshadowing possible upward trends.

Main Body

The dynamics within the cryptocurrency market constantly evolve, with Bitcoin often at the forefront of these changes. In November, Bitcoin's price dipped sharply, reaching nearly $80,000, an event mirrored by a notable decline in the short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio to 0.013. This phenomenon has historically coincided with major market bottoms, as documented in years such as 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Data from Glassnode indicates each of these past dips marked either a local bottom or a definitive low for bear markets.

Investors who held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, termed short-term holders, saw their profits decline sharply, with short-term holder supply in profit dropping to around 30,000 BTC during the November trough. Conversely, the supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX crash in 2022. However, from the onset of 2026, Bitcoin witnessed a rally — prices soared to approximately $94,000, marking an over 7% increase.

This period saw a reduction in the short-term holder supply in loss to 1.9 million BTC while the supply in profit surged to 850,000 BTC, establishing the profit-to-loss ratio at around 0.45. Historically, as this ratio trends towards and surpasses 1, Bitcoin often embarks on a sustained upward trajectory. Currently, with the ratio below 0.5, analysts speculate there is room for further market expansion before it balances out.

Meanwhile, significant trading activity has been recorded on major exchanges like KuCoin, which reported over $1.25 trillion in trading volume in 2025. This growth, alongside the spread of activity across spot and derivatives markets, suggests a robust market infrastructure supporting altcoins alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite mid-year volume softening, user engagement remained consistently high.

Furthermore, the wider cryptocurrency market displayed bullish signs as BNB surged past the $910 resistance, following an overall 5.3% uptick in the CoinDesk 20 index. The upcoming technological enhancements, such as BNB’s Fermi hard fork, promise higher transaction capacities, enticing both developers and investors alike. As BNB eyes further gains, the cryptocurrency community prepares for more shifts in market dynamics.

Key Insights Table