Preface

After experiencing a challenging year where it underperformed against both gold and the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin is anticipated to become a leading performer by 2026, according to David Schassler, VanEck's head of multi-asset solutions. Schassler's forecast is based on key economic factors like monetary debasement and returning liquidity, both favoring scarce assets. While gold is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, Bitcoin is projected to mirror this trend, further driven by increasing demand.

Lazy bag

David Schassler from VanEck forecasts Bitcoin's strong comeback in 2026, highlighting the significant role of monetary debasement and scarce asset demand.

Main Body

This year, Bitcoin has notably underperformed, delivering lower returns compared to gold and the tech-focused Nasdaq 100, despite expectations of benefiting from the devaluation of fiat currencies. As David Schassler notes, Bitcoin is trailing the Nasdaq 100 by about 50% year-to-date, a significant dislocation that is expected to set the stage for Bitcoin's recovery by 2026. This underperformance is partly attributed to the weak risk appetite and tight liquidity conditions currently impacting the market.

With the increasing trend of monetary debasement, particularly as fiscal policies continue to pivot towards significant money printing, the demand for hard assets like gold and Bitcoin is anticipated to rise. Schassler emphasizes that this macroeconomic environment—notably characterized by currency devaluation and technological advancements—will drive a shift towards assets perceived as safe havens. Consequently, this transition is expected to catalyze a strong comeback for Bitcoin.

Additionally, 2025 showcased substantial technological and infrastructural advancements, though this was mirrored by a flat or negative performance across Layer-1 tokens. The coming years will likely see a more pronounced decoupling between network usage and token performance—a trend crucial for investors and stakeholders to monitor.

Beyond Bitcoin and gold, the market for natural resources is also experiencing a quiet rise, driven by increasing demands related to artificial intelligence, energy transitions, and re-industrialization efforts. As Schassler observes, these "old-world assets" are building a foundation for what could be the new economic landscape.

Key Insights Table