Preface

Recent developments in the U.S. financial landscape have led to a significant change in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December. The probability has now decreased to 30%, influenced by various factors including a lack of crucial economic data and internal disagreements among policymakers. This article explores the implications of these shifts and provides insights into the current economic climate.

Lazy bag

Key takeaways: The likelihood of an interest rate cut has fallen to 30%. The absence of October jobs data due to a government shutdown complicates policymaking. Divergence among Fed members on rate decisions persists.

Main Body

The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting its interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% has diminished significantly to 30%, down from a more certain 50% recorded a day and a week ago, and dramatically from 98% a month earlier. This shift, highlighted by CME's FedWatch tool, comes amid increasing challenges, particularly due to a prolonged lack of essential economic data.

The government's extended shutdown has delayed the Labor Department's release of crucial October employment data, intensifying difficulties for Federal Reserve policymakers striving to make informed decisions. This hiatus in data, paired with ongoing economic uncertainties, introduces a layer of complexity in evaluating the nation's economic health.

Minutes from the October Federal Reserve meeting, published on Wednesday, reveal substantial disagreements among policymakers about whether to pause or adjust interest rates. Some members advocate for a pause, while others call for further cuts to stimulate economic activity.

Beyond domestic economic matters, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated resilience, with Bitcoin trading at around $91,700 and showing modest gains over a 24-hour period. Elsewhere, GoPlus has been notably successful, generating significant revenue streams in 2025, with its app and token services displaying robust activity and growth. These developments indicate that while traditional markets face hurdles, digital asset platforms are gaining momentum.

In addition to these economic shifts, prominent financial institutions, such as BlackRock, are making strategic moves by registering intent to enter the staked Ethereum ETF market, further underscoring the growing interconnection between traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets.

While CoinDesk remains a principle-driven journalistic entity with clear editorial policies, it exists within the broader Bullish network, offering both market infrastructure and a diverse portfolio of digital asset engagements.

Key Insights Table