Highlights

Recent analyses using six informative charts indicate Bitcoin’s current rise above $100K may be more stable than the January surge. With financial conditions appearing more favorable now, analysts suggest a higher chance for a continuous upward trend. The U.S. dollar index and treasury yields are more accommodating, fostering a supportive environment for Bitcoin's continued growth.

Sentiment Analysis

• The sentiment surrounding Bitcoin's latest price movement is largely positive.
• Optimism is driven by supportive financial conditions, despite some caution due to potential volatility.
• Investors actively engage in spot ETFs, indicating strong market confidence.

Article Text

Bitcoin's trajectory to over $100,000 invites a keen analysis of financial conditions, market sentiment, and investment flows. Presently, financial conditions have eased compared to the start of the year. Lowering interest rates and a dropping U.S. dollar index create a fertile backdrop for riskier investments like Bitcoin. The dollar index's descent from January highs and a softer treasury yield picture contribute significantly to this shift. Meanwhile, the 30-year yield has revisited January levels, often seen as a bullish sign for both gold and Bitcoin.

An essential element of support comes from a surge in USD-pegged stablecoins' market cap, hitting a record $151 billion. This increase implies more 'dry powder' is ready for potential Bitcoin investment. Institutional investors have largely participated in the recent upswing, shunning arbitrage opportunities for direct bets as evidenced by rising inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

While Bitcoin futures records show increasing interest, open interest remains below previous peaks, with positions stable and measured, avoiding the excessive leverage that typically signals overheating. However, bullish sentiment is underlined by positive funding rates for holding futures open, a sign of confidence.

The atmosphere is calmer compared to historical peaks, limiting speculative fervor that previously led to nonsensical token overruns. This stability is mirrored in the subdued implied volatility, as indicated by Deribit's DVOL index, suggesting a potential for a more sustained and measured appreciation in Bitcoin's price.

Key Insights Table

Aspect	Description
Financial Conditions	Easier compared to January, supportive for Bitcoin's growth.
Stablecoin Market Cap	Record high at $151 billion, indicating investment potential.
Spot ETF Inflows	Rising steadily, suggesting strong interest in direct investment.
Market Sentiment	More stable, less speculative fervor compared to previous peaks.

Last edited at：2025/5/21