Preface

The return to markets following the holiday season, coupled with growing anticipation for Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president, is creating a bullish sentiment for bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has seen a substantial 10% increase over the past week, recovering from losses earlier in December. This optimism is further fueled by significant inflows into U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs, with spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds amassing nearly $1 billion. Investors are now eyeing key price levels as they anticipate further upward movements in the digital asset.

Lazy bag

Bitcoin recovers and surges, retaking the $102,000 mark. Traders target $109,000 amid bullish sentiment, boosted by nearly $1B in Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Main Body

As financial markets reopen after the holidays, there's a noticeable surge in bitcoin's performance, reflecting increased optimism among traders. This uptrend coincides with the anticipation of Donald Trump's inauguration as the U.S. president, bringing potential changes to crypto policies that could positively impact the market. The cryptocurrency saw its value climb, reclaiming the $102,000 level after dipping earlier in December.

The highlight of this trend is the significant inflow into bitcoin exchange-traded funds. On a recent Monday, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs garnered $987 million, marking the highest influx since late November. Fidelity’s FBTC led these inflows with $370 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $209 million, and Ark Invest’s ARKB with $71 million. Out of the twelve bitcoin ETFs, nine showed positive inflow, indicating robust investor interest in digital assets.

The expectation of Trump's forthcoming economic and crypto policies has invigorated trader sentiment, positively influencing bitcoin prices. Bitcoin's potential increase often precedes an altcoin rally, hinting at broader market growth. This shift in trend was noted by Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, who attributed the demand to a weak outlook from the Federal Reserve that curbed previous market rallies.

Traders are setting their sights on the $109,000 milestone, considering it a short-term goal that could confirm the ongoing bullish trend. The momentum has also been supported by technical analysis, with many referencing the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the rally since November as a critical support point. If bitcoin breaches the historical high of $109,000 confidently, it would be a strong indication of continued growth, potentially beyond the $100,000 mark.

These Fibonacci analysis tools are essential for traders looking to predict market movements by identifying support and resistance levels, subsequently influencing the market. However, market volatility is expected to remain subdued until the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report delivers insights that might influence investment strategies for the new year.

Such economic data could impact the strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially affecting bitcoin and related risk assets. Augustine Fan from SOFA emphasized watching the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions later in the month for cues on economic conditions, or a 'soft landing' scenario, driving future volatility.

Currently, bitcoin trades just above $101,600, showing a 2% increase over 24 hours in Asian markets. The CoinDesk 20 index, which observes the top cryptocurrencies, also noted a slight increase, emphasizing the robust market performance.

Key Insights Table

Aspect	Description
Market Recovery	Bitcoin recovers 10% post-holidays amid positive market sentiment.
ETF Inflows	Bitcoin ETFs receive nearly $1B, showing increased investor interest.
Target Price	Traders aim for $109,000 as a confirmation of bullish trend continuation.
Technical Analysis	Fibonacci levels are used to track potential support and resistance points.
Market Volatility	Low volatility expected until significant economic reports are released.

Last edited at：2025/1/7