Robinhood’s Q3 Results Miss Estimates as Event Contracts Expand

Highlights

Robinhood reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, below expectations of roughly $1.43 billion. Earnings were $0.51 per share, compared with analysts’ $0.55 estimate and $0.61 a year earlier. Event-contract revenue increased to $173 million from $156 million in the second quarter, while customers traded a record 16.4 billion contracts. Crypto revenue rose to $120 million from $100 million sequentially but remained down 55% year over year. Net income fell to $476 million. The company narrowed its 2026 expense outlook to $2.675 billion–$2.75 billion, and its shares slipped after hours. Prediction-market activity was a standout growth area even as overall earnings missed expectations.

Sentiment Analysis

• The report presents a mixed financial picture: revenue reached a record, yet both revenue and earnings per share came in below analyst expectations. Net income also declined from the year-earlier period and the preceding quarter, adding a cautious tone to the results.
• Growth in event contracts offers a constructive counterpoint. Revenue from these products increased sequentially, and trading volume reached a record 16.4 billion contracts, more than seven times the year-earlier level. These figures suggest expanding customer engagement with prediction markets.
• Crypto performance was also mixed. Revenue increased from the second quarter, but remained 55% below the year-earlier figure, while crypto trading volume fell 38% year over year. The company’s chain and stablecoin partnership provide strategic developments, but the source does not establish their eventual financial impact.
• Shares slipped in after-hours trading, while the stock was already down roughly 18% for the year and about 37% below its 52-week high. Overall sentiment is mixed, with clear product growth offset by weaker comparisons and a quarterly earnings miss.

Article Text

Robinhood reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, but the result was slightly below the roughly $1.43 billion expected by Wall Street. Earnings came to $0.51 per share, below the $0.55 analysts had projected and down from $0.61 a year earlier. The figures combine a record revenue result with a shortfall against expectations and weaker earnings comparisons.

The company’s net income was $476 million, down 14% from $556 million a year earlier and 17% from $573 million in the second quarter. Results included a $67 million unrealized loss on Robinhood Ventures Fund I. An unrealized loss reflects a decline in value on paper rather than necessarily a completed sale. The loss reduced earnings by $0.07 per share. Adjusted earnings per share, which exclude certain items, were $0.60, down 3% from a year earlier.

Event contracts were one of the quarter’s strongest areas. These yes-or-no contracts pay $1 when a specified outcome occurs, such as a particular result in a sports game, election or economic report. Revenue from event contracts reached $173 million, compared with $156 million in the second quarter. That earlier quarter marked the first time event-contract revenue exceeded crypto revenue. Customers traded a record 16.4 billion contracts during the latest quarter, more than seven times the volume a year earlier.

Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev described prediction markets as being at the beginning of a “supercycle.” The company had added NFL player contracts and parlay-style combinations, which pay only if every specified outcome occurs. These products represent an expansion beyond conventional stock and cryptocurrency trading, although the reported figures alone do not establish how durable the growth will be.

Crypto revenue increased to $120 million from $100 million in the second quarter. However, it was still down 55% from the $268 million earned in the third quarter of 2025. Customers traded $50 billion in crypto during the quarter, a 38% decline from a year earlier. Of that total, $21 billion was traded through the Robinhood app and $29 billion through Bitstamp, the crypto exchange acquired by Robinhood.

Robinhood Chain went live on July 1 as a layer-2 network built on Ethereum. Layer-2 networks operate on top of a blockchain to support faster or less expensive transactions. Early activity on Robinhood Chain was driven by meme coins, rather than the tokenized stocks the network was designed to support. Tokenized stocks are digital representations of company shares that trade on a blockchain. By the end of August, the chain had generated about $3.13 million in fees over 30 days, compared with $2.47 million for Ethereum and $2.89 million for Base over the stated period.

Hours before releasing its results, Robinhood announced an agreement with Ripple involving RLUSD, a stablecoin designed to maintain a value of one dollar. The agreement will bring RLUSD to Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with an in-app rollout planned later this year. RLUSD has a market value above $2.5 billion. Ripple will also provide Robinhood’s treasury software and lending services for Bitstamp traders. The announcement adds to the company’s digital-asset activity, but the source provides no estimate of the deal’s future revenue contribution.

Robinhood shares closed Tuesday at about $94.61 and slipped in after-hours trading. The stock was down roughly 18% for the year and about 37% below its 52-week high of $150.47. The company also narrowed its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, trimming the upper end of the $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion range it set in July. The results therefore show simultaneous expansion in event contracts and continued weakness in year-over-year crypto activity and earnings.

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