Cathay Real Estate Index: New Taipei’s Q3 Sales Rate Falls to 3.72% as Market Absorption Weakens

Preface

Cathay Real Estate Index released its third-quarter 2026 assessment of Taiwan’s housing market, describing overall conditions as stable in prices with higher transaction volume compared with both the previous quarter and the same period last year. Asking and transaction prices remained broadly steady, while bargaining rates narrowed slightly. New project launches increased moderately, transactions rose slightly, and the overall sales rate held steady. However, the national picture conceals a notable weakness in New Taipei: its 30-day sales rate was just 3.72%, while transaction volume fell 25% year over year. These figures point to a clear loss of market absorption momentum in a region where new supply is expanding. This article reviews the index’s findings across New Taipei and Taiwan as a whole, along with the economic and policy conditions shaping the near-term outlook.

Lazy bag

In Q3 2026, Taiwan’s housing market recorded broadly stable prices and a modest increase in transaction volume, but the recovery remained limited. The overall sales rate was 5.62%, near its low level of the past year. New Taipei stood out for its weaker performance: the 30-day sales rate reached only 3.72%, and transactions were down 25% year over year, despite project value rising nearly 40% year over year. The central bank’s further easing of the second-home loan-to-value limit may support home-moving demand, but credit controls, abundant supply, and subdued expectations for price increases continue to constrain activity. Regional results varied, with price gains and volume changes differing across cities.

Main Body

Cathay Construction (國建, 2501-TW) released the Cathay Real Estate Index for the third quarter of 2026 on the 22nd. At the national level, the index characterized the quarter as one of stable prices and increasing transaction volume, both compared with the previous quarter and with the same quarter a year earlier. Transaction prices and asking prices remained stable, while bargaining rates narrowed slightly. The volume of newly launched projects rose moderately, transaction volume increased slightly, and the overall sales rate remained stable. These broad indicators suggest some improvement in market activity, but they do not indicate a strong or uniform recovery.

The most prominent weakness was in New Taipei City, where the 30-day sales rate in the previous quarter was only 3.72%, representing a sharp decline. Transaction volume also fell 25% year over year. Together, the low sales rate and lower transaction volume indicate that new homes were taking longer to sell and that the market’s capacity to absorb available inventory had weakened. The figures are especially notable because the city’s project value increased nearly 40% year over year, widening the gap between new supply and effective buyer demand.

According to the New Taipei component of the index, developers concentrated Q3 project launches in core areas. Unit prices moved upward, apartment sizes became smaller, and total prices remained broadly unchanged. This combination suggests that developers were offering smaller homes at higher per-unit prices while keeping overall purchase prices relatively steady. Yet higher-priced new projects did not sell smoothly: the sales rate was just 3.72%, and transaction volume was down by one-quarter from the same period last year. The index therefore describes New Taipei’s market absorption momentum as clearly weaker.

Price comparisons for New Taipei differed depending on the period used. Model prices were broadly unchanged from the same quarter last year. Compared with the previous quarter, however, the city’s housing market was described as having declines in both prices and volume, indicating a deterioration in market performance. On a year-over-year basis, prices were stable while volume contracted, producing a comparatively weak result. These assessments underline why a stable price index alone does not necessarily mean demand is healthy: when sales volume falls and a small share of newly launched homes sells within 30 days, market conditions may still be weakening.

Across Taiwan, the third-quarter picture was more resilient than New Taipei’s. The index reported that project launches increased in most cities compared with the previous period. Some of the increase reflected projects delayed from earlier periods and the concentrated launch of large developments. At the same time, the overall sales rate was 5.62%, remaining near the low end of the past year. Thus, while the volume of launches and transactions showed signs of recovery, the market’s ability to sell new homes remained limited.

The index noted that the central bank had again relaxed the loan-to-value limit for second-home purchases. This change could support home-moving demand and contribute to a recovery in transactions. However, the potential effect remains subject to ongoing credit controls and pressure from housing supply. The index consequently expects prices to remain in a period of consolidation in the short term, with conditions continuing to vary from one region to another. In its overall assessment, the national market was relatively stronger than in some weaker local markets because prices remained stable while volume increased against both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. Nevertheless, total market activity continued to sit at a historically low level.

Economic conditions also provide context for the housing outlook. The index reported that AI-related demand supported exports and economic growth, prompting the central bank to raise its full-year economic growth forecast to 11.48%. Domestic demand, however, remained moderate, and the central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged. In housing policy, the second-home mortgage loan-to-value limit was raised further in September, and the share of loans used for residential purchases continued to increase.

Despite these policy and economic developments, public expectations of further home-price increases remained weak. The index therefore found that both housing transaction momentum and price growth were still subdued. Improved loan conditions may help some households seeking to move, but the effect is not necessarily enough to offset a cautious buyer outlook, credit restrictions, and the amount of housing available for sale. The contrast between stronger macroeconomic growth and restrained housing sentiment is an important feature of the quarter.

Regional results compared with the previous quarter were mixed. Housing prices across Taiwan were broadly stable, but city-level movements diverged: only Taoyuan and Taichung recorded price increases, while other cities were stable or declined. Transaction volume edged up nationally, with more notable increases in Taipei and Tainan. This uneven pattern shows that a national average can mask substantial differences in local demand and supply conditions.

Compared with the same quarter last year, transaction prices across regions were stable or higher. Hsinchu County and City recorded larger price increases. National transaction volume also rose slightly year over year, with a more notable increase in Kaohsiung. These comparisons indicate that some markets retained stronger price performance or saw more visible activity, even as the broader market remained subdued.

The index’s four-quarter moving trend provides a longer-term perspective. Transaction prices in every region were substantially above the previous cycle’s peaks reached between 2013 and 2015. Prices generally remained at high levels or continued to rise gradually; Taichung City was the only area noted as having softened slightly from its peak. In contrast, transaction volume had contracted sharply over the past two years. Only Taipei, Taoyuan, and Kaohsiung recorded a slight increase in volume this quarter compared with the previous quarter.

Taken together, the Q3 2026 findings show a market with firm prices but restrained turnover. National transaction volume improved modestly, yet sales rates remained low and the recovery was far from broad-based. New Taipei is a particularly clear example of the pressure created when supply grows faster than demand: project value increased nearly 40% year over year, while its 30-day sales rate was only 3.72% and transaction volume fell 25%. The index’s central message is therefore one of regional divergence, continued supply pressure, and a housing market whose prices remain elevated even as its capacity to absorb new homes remains limited.

Key Insights Table

Source: Cathay Real Estate Index