Anthropic Emerges as the AI Sector’s Leading IPO Prospect for 2026

Preface

At the start of 2026, investors anticipated a strong year for initial public offerings, with several high-profile private companies—including SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI—considered possible candidates. That optimism has since cooled. OpenAI has ruled out a public-market debut in 2026, while planned offerings across industries have been postponed. As a result, Anthropic has become the leading remaining possibility for a major AI-related IPO announcement this year, according to trading activity on prediction market Kalshi. Yet the outlook is not purely celebratory: recent revenue figures and questions about growth have challenged optimistic assumptions. This article examines how expectations shifted, what prediction-market odds indicate, and why Anthropic’s potential offering is drawing both attention and scrutiny.

Lazy bag

At the beginning of 2026, markets expected a wave of prominent technology IPOs. That outlook has narrowed, leaving Anthropic as the only company among 23 still-open Kalshi listings with better-than-even odds of officially announcing an IPO this year: 75% as of Monday morning. By comparison, the odds for Plaid, Deel, Databricks and OpenAI have fallen sharply. Although IPO proceeds are up, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025. Anthropic’s prospects also face questions after it reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion and a revised valuation range starting at $1.5T, below a prior expectation of at least $2T.

Main Body

Investors entered 2026 expecting a busy year for initial public offerings. The list of potential marquee debuts included SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, each a major private company whose scale and profile could attract substantial public-market interest. The anticipated wave has not materialized as expected. OpenAI has ruled out going public in 2026, and several other planned offerings have been postponed. For investors hoping to see a major AI company move from private ownership to public markets this year, Anthropic has consequently become a central focus.

One indicator of that shift comes from Kalshi, a prediction market where traders buy and sell contracts tied to future events. Its IPO market asks whether a range of companies will officially announce an IPO in 2026. The measure is not based simply on speculation that a company is preparing to go public. According to the market’s stated resolution criteria, an announcement is considered official when the Securities and Exchange Commission declares a company’s S-1 registration statement effective, an IPO is priced, or an exchange assigns a ticker to the stock. Various news outlets are used as sources when resolving contracts.

Among the 23 companies Kalshi lists in contracts that remain open to trade, Anthropic is the only one with odds above 50% of officially announcing an IPO during the year. Its probability stood at 75% as of Monday morning. These odds reflect traders’ collective expectations, not a confirmation that a transaction will occur. They can change as new information emerges, and they should not be read as a guarantee of timing, valuation or eventual listing.

The movement in expectations for other private companies illustrates how much the market’s outlook has changed. In January, traders assigned Plaid, a financial technology company, a 50% chance of entering public markets this year. That probability has since fallen to 10%. Plaid has reportedly been valued at $8 billion in the private market. The shift suggests that investors have become less confident about a near-term offering, even for a company that previously appeared to have a plausible path to a public debut.

Deel, a human-resources and payroll platform, had 50-50 odds as recently as February. Kalshi traders now see only a 3% chance that it will go public in 2026. Databricks, a cloud and artificial-intelligence platform, has odds of just 1%, despite having more than 50% odds in January. These changes are not proof that the companies have abandoned IPO plans. Rather, they show that market participants have substantially lowered the likelihood of a public offering within the specified period.

OpenAI’s prospects have also weakened. Anthropic’s chief rival has a 3% chance of going public in 2026, after CEO Sam Altman said last month that an IPO did not make sense amid concerns about AI safety. On Kalshi, traders give OpenAI 50-50 odds of making an official IPO announcement by June 2027. The longer time horizon produces a more balanced outlook than the company’s 2026 probability, but it still reflects uncertainty about whether and when OpenAI will pursue a listing.

The broader IPO environment helps explain why early-year expectations have been revised. Postponements have increased in recent weeks across multiple sectors. At the same time, total IPO proceeds this year are up sharply, driven by megacap debuts, notably SpaceX in June. However, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025, according to Renaissance Capital. The contrast between rising proceeds and fewer offerings indicates that a small number of very large listings can lift aggregate fundraising even as overall IPO activity declines.

For private AI companies and businesses supporting the buildout of artificial intelligence, a public listing can offer access to a larger pool of capital. Rapid growth may require substantial funding for product development, infrastructure and other investments. Moving from private to public markets is therefore viewed as a possible next step for some companies seeking to support expansion. But public investors also demand detailed disclosures and ongoing evidence that a company can sustain growth. The shift can bring new financing opportunities while making business performance more visible and subject to market scrutiny.

Anthropic’s own financial disclosures have added complexity to the IPO story. The company reported revenue totaling $16.8 billion in the third quarter. The figure drew attention not only for its scale but also because quarter-over-quarter growth was weaker than in earlier periods. The report prompted questions about whether the company can maintain the pace of expansion investors may expect from a prominent AI business.

On Sunday, 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson wrote that “More questions than answers emerged around the reasons for revenue growth deceleration in September and whether Anthropic can grow revenue at the rate the market is expecting given dynamics such as [large language model] pricing pressure.” The comments highlight two connected uncertainties: what caused growth to slow and whether competitive pricing in the large-language-model market could affect future revenue expansion.

Valuation expectations have also shifted. Peterson said that a revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T, compared with a prior expectation of at least $2T, was viewed as disappointing. The change added pressure to AI-related equities that were already under strain. A lower starting point than previously anticipated does not by itself establish what a final offering valuation would be, but it signals that market expectations may be adjusting in response to financial performance and concerns about the sector’s outlook.

Together, these developments create a mixed picture. Anthropic remains the strongest IPO candidate in the Kalshi market for 2026, with 75% odds as of Monday morning, while competing possibilities have weakened. Yet a high prediction-market probability is not the same as a confirmed filing or an assured public debut. Revenue growth, pricing dynamics, valuation expectations and the broader pace of IPO activity all remain relevant to how investors assess the company’s prospects.

The disclosure accompanying the source material states that CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. This relationship is relevant context when considering coverage of Kalshi’s markets. It does not change the figures reported above, but readers may wish to account for it when evaluating information about the platform and its contracts.

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