Ethiopia and Tigray Trade Accusations of Offensives, Raising Fears of Renewed War

Highlights

Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray authorities have accused one another of launching military operations, increasing concern about a return to full-scale fighting. Reports say Tigrayan fighters seized federally controlled airports in Tigray and struck positions in Afar and Amhara, while Tigrayans describe their actions as a defensive war after alleged drone attacks. Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure have been reported, and flights to Tigray were suspended. International actors are urging restraint and dialogue as tensions escalate.

Sentiment Analysis

• The overall sentiment of this report is mixed to negative. It conveys alarm and concern due to renewed hostilities and civilian harm, while also noting calls for diplomacy. The narrative emphasizes danger, humanitarian risk, and political fragmentation, resulting in a prevailing tone of urgency and pessimism about near-term stability. However, mentions of international appeals for dialogue introduce a limited thread of cautious hope.





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Article Text

The federal government of Ethiopia and the leadership of the Tigray region have traded accusations that each side launched recent offensives, intensifying fears that the two-year conflict in Tigray could resume at large scale. Government advisers said Tigrayan fighters seized airports that had been under federal administration in Tigray and initiated attacks into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Tigrayan authorities countered that they had been compelled to enter into what they called a "defensive war" following reports of aerial strikes in their territory.

The 2020–22 war in Tigray ended formally in late 2022 with a mediator-brokered agreement, but implementation of its terms has been slow and contested. Both sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the Pretoria Agreement’s provisions in recent months, stoking mistrust. The conflict was among the deadliest of the century, with regional mediators estimating very high civilian casualties and severe food insecurity that pushed parts of the region toward famine during the fighting.

Official statements from Addis Ababa described a coordinated offensive by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which recently announced a coalition with six other armed groups opposed to the federal government. A senior government adviser called the reported attacks "an all-out offensive" against positions in Afar and Amhara. The adviser, who previously led an interim administration in Tigray before breaking with the TPLF and joining the federal government, framed the developments as a regrettable deterioration despite international efforts to prevent renewed hostilities.

Tigrayan officials, for their part, accused the federal authorities of mounting an 'open invasion' of their region and urged residents to rally behind regional forces. They reported disruptions to essential services and damage to critical infrastructure, and they asserted that international humanitarian and human rights obligations were being violated. Both sides’ statements contain serious allegations that, at present, remain contested and only partially corroborated by independent sources.

Civilian harm has been reported in several incidents that have raised alarm. Local officials in Tigray said a strike on the southern town of Alamata killed at least 14 people and injured many others, and they described multiple drone and jet strikes in the area. A town mayor told journalists that the strikes struck buildings officials believed to be civilian and that the attacks caused widespread panic and psychological trauma. The BBC and other independent outlets have not independently verified all of the allegations, and government responses to some accusations were not immediately available.

Following reports that Tigrayan forces had taken control of airports in the region, Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to Tigray. Residents in the regional capital reported that local forces had assumed control of the airport from national police; such changes in control over infrastructure further complicate humanitarian access and mobility for civilians. International actors, including the United States' Bureau of African Affairs, have condemned attacks on humanitarian convoys and called for investigations into strikes that reportedly targeted food aid shipments.

The renewed tensions highlight persistent obstacles to a durable peace. Key provisions of the Pretoria Agreement remain unimplemented or disputed, and both the federal government and TPLF leadership have faced criticism over delays and unilateral actions that undermine confidence-building. In the run-up to nationwide elections, and amid local political changes in Tigray where the TPLF restored its pre-war administration, the environment has become more volatile, with reports of forced recruitment and other coercive practices in some areas.

As accusations and counter-accusations continue, observers warn of heightened humanitarian risk, possible displacement, and further breakdowns in local service delivery. International calls for restraint and renewed dialogue underline the need for immediate steps to de-escalate and to create conditions for transparent monitoring and implementation of peace terms. Without rapid, verifiable de-escalation measures, the prospects of a return to widespread fighting and a deepening humanitarian crisis remain substantial.

Key Insights Table