Thousands Left With 'No Safe Options' as RSF Advances Toward El-Obeid Amid Siege Fears and Humanitarian Collapse
Table of Contents
You might want to know
Will el-Obeid face reprisals similar to the el-Fasher massacre if paramilitary forces capture the city?
How are supply routes, aid delivery and civilian protection being affected as the RSF advances?
Main Topic
Thousands of civilians have sought refuge in el-Obeid, a city in North Kordofan that has become a focal point in Sudan's ongoing civil war. Displaced people from surrounding areas have converged on the city because it is still under Sudanese military control and, for now, perceived as comparatively safer than front-line areas. However, the security situation around el-Obeid has sharply deteriorated as fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) escalates. Reports and satellite imagery indicate that the main displacement camp near the city has expanded markedly since March, with aid agencies recording dozens of new arrivals daily. This inflow has stretched local coping capacities and strained humanitarian operations.
The IOM and other UN agencies warn that displaced families are increasingly running out of safe options. Many who are now in el-Obeid have already been displaced previously and are once again forced to abandon homes, livelihoods and support systems. The UN and a coalition of foreign ministers from the G7 have publicly cautioned that the RSF may be preparing an offensive to seize the city, sparking fears of large-scale civilian harm and reprisals comparable to those seen in el-Fasher last October. That event is widely reported as one of the most severe atrocities since the conflict began in 2023, where mass executions were carried out after the RSF overran SAF positions.
Evidence of an impending threat includes verified footage showing RSF units in armoured vehicles staging in Nyala, a nearby RSF stronghold, and claims by commanders on official channels pledging to "liberate" el-Obeid. Analysts tracking incidents have recorded a significant number of drone strikes on the city, notably a peak in June. Although the recorded rate of attacks dipped in July as the RSF diverted resources to other fronts, the overall pattern suggests a sustained capability and intent to attack urban infrastructure and supply lines.
Humanitarian access has been severely disrupted. Aid groups report that supply convoys have been targeted by drone strikes and that flights bringing aid through el-Obeid's airport have been interrupted. Satellite imagery and verified video material show damage to critical civilian infrastructure, including explosions at fuel stations and apparent hits on power facilities and market warehouses. These disruptions, together with deliberate efforts by RSF commanders to cut supply routes, have contributed to acute shortages of food, fuel and clean water around the city. The UN has warned that nearly 400,000 people in el-Obeid's vicinity are at risk of food insecurity, with supply-chain restrictions creating what UN officials described as a "functional siege."
Local and international aid agencies are attempting to scale up assistance, and some deliveries have reached the city in recent days. Islamic Relief and other organisations report distribution of food and partial restoration of power in certain areas. Nevertheless, operations remain fragile and unpredictable: fuel shortages persist, distribution is limited by insecurity, and the volume of new arrivals—estimated by aid workers at around 80 to 100 households daily—continues to swell displacement sites. Satellite photos show hundreds of new tents established since March, underscoring the scale of recent displacement into el-Obeid.
The threat of RSF capture has social consequences inside the city as well. UN human rights officials have documented growing suspicion and hostility toward displaced populations, amid fears that RSF sympathisers could be among those seeking shelter. This dynamic raises protection concerns for both long-term residents and newcomers, complicating an already fragile humanitarian response.
Militarily, the Sudanese army appears to be fortifying el-Obeid: satellite imagery suggests the construction of a defensive berm around the city intended to deter attackers. Officials also reported securing a key highway linking el-Obeid with Khartoum, a strategic move to maintain supply and reinforcement lines. In turn, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) has publicly ordered his forces to press forward, indicating the potential for intensified operations.
Analysts highlight el-Obeid's strategic importance. The city serves as a junction between RSF-controlled western territories and military-held central and eastern regions, making it a pivotal objective for both sides. Observers note that the RSF may be seeking to regain momentum after setbacks in other areas, and that internal pressures—such as defections and instability in Darfur—could be driving more aggressive operations. International actors, including the EU and G7, have warned of potential atrocities and urged third parties to halt military or financial support to combatants. The European Parliament has publicly identified the UAE as a state accused of backing the RSF, allegations denied by Emirati authorities.
Given the scale of humanitarian need and the risk of mass violence, experts and diplomats are calling for increased international pressure on the RSF and its supporters to prevent further atrocities. The coming days and weeks will be critical: continued monitoring, expanded humanitarian access, and diplomatic engagement aimed at deterring large-scale attacks are essential to reduce the risk to civilians. Yet the situation remains volatile, with both military developments and humanitarian responses subject to rapid change.
Key Insights Table
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Displacement scale | More than 83,000 civilians estimated to have fled to el-Obeid from elsewhere in the state. |
| Humanitarian risk | Nearly 400,000 people face food shortages amid supply route disruptions and infrastructure damage. |
| Security threats | Verified RSF troop movements, armoured vehicles near Nyala and multiple drone strikes targeting city infrastructure. |
| Protection concerns | Rising local hostility toward displaced people over fears of RSF infiltration; risk of reprisals if city falls. |
| International response | UN, G7 and EU warnings; calls for suspension of external support to belligerents; diplomatic pressure on RSF backers urged. |
Afterwards...
The situation in and around el-Obeid remains precarious. Short-term priorities include ensuring sustained humanitarian access, preventing further disruption of food and fuel supplies, and protecting civilians from targeted violence. International actors can play a role by increasing diplomatic pressure on armed groups and their external supporters, expanding support for humanitarian corridors, and enhancing monitoring to deter mass atrocities.
Longer-term prospects hinge on de-escalation and accountable mechanisms to address abuses. Without a meaningful reduction in hostilities and clearer guarantees for civilian protection, el-Obeid risks becoming the site of further largescale displacement and potential mass violence. For now, humanitarian agencies continue to operate under severe constraints while preparing for potential surges in needs should the conflict reach the city itself.
