Highlights

Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 housing collapse, says he currently holds no position in SpaceX and has passed on bearish option trades because they are too costly. He criticized SpaceX’s near-$3 trillion implied market value, calling it outsized relative to the company’s revenue and core businesses. Burry finds put options overpriced enough to deter a short bet despite his skepticism of the valuation. He described SpaceX as a collection of niche operations rather than a conglomerate justifying its sky-high market cap.

Sentiment Analysis

• The overall tone of the article is cautiously skeptical. It reports Burry’s doubts about SpaceX’s valuation without outright hostility, presenting his reasoning and option-pricing specifics. The piece balances critical commentary with factual market details, suggesting measured concern rather than alarm.

Article Text

Michael Burry, the investor widely recognized for calling the U.S. housing collapse before the 2008 financial crisis, said on Tuesday that he currently holds no position in SpaceX. In a Substack post, Burry explained that he had examined several bearish option trades tied to the company but ultimately declined to take a position because the contracts were too expensive relative to the potential payoff.

He noted specific pricing on put options as part of his analysis. For example, a put with a $100 strike price expiring in December 2028 was trading near $25 per contract while the underlying stock hovered around $212. Comparable puts expiring in June 2027 traded near $13, and December 2026 contracts were about $6.75. Although Burry said he felt tempted by some of the shorter-dated contracts, he opted not to enter the trades, expecting that if SpaceX’s price settled in the mid-$200s, volatility would decline and put prices would fall.

Burry’s reluctance to act does not stem from enthusiasm for SpaceX’s valuation. On the contrary, he questioned the scale of the company’s market capitalization, calling it disproportionate to what he described as a mix of smaller, specialized businesses. He characterized SpaceX as "fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light," and estimated the combined businesses generate less than $20 billion in annual revenue. He argued that the company’s market value vastly outstrips the earnings and size of many established firms and even some economies.

Burry highlighted how quickly SpaceX’s market capitalization has risen, noting that it surpassed the value of Berkshire Hathaway in a short span. He contrasted the rapid ascent with the long-term, painstaking growth associated with iconic investors and their businesses. This comparison underscored his view that current market enthusiasm may be driving valuations to levels that are difficult to justify purely on fundamentals.

The remarks come amid intense public and investor attention on SpaceX following a highly watched initial public offering. Shares surged in early trading and pushed Elon Musk into the spotlight as one of the wealthiest individuals globally. That strong debut and subsequent price momentum have fueled debate among analysts and investors about whether market expectations accurately reflect the company’s underlying economic footprint.

Market observers have pointed out that SpaceX operates across several distinct areas—launch services, satellite internet, and social media—each with different competitive dynamics and revenue models. Burry’s commentary echoes concerns that combining these businesses into a single valuation metric can obscure the limits and risks inherent in each segment. His emphasis on option prices also suggests an appreciation for risk-reward trade-offs; even when skeptical, he is unwilling to commit capital if market instruments are priced against him.

In a broader context, the investor has recently urged caution toward high-flying technology stocks, recommending that investors temper greed as enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and momentum-driven trades elevates valuations. For months he has warned that the market’s fixation on AI and rapid sector leaders bears resemblance to late-stage speculative episodes of the past, arguing for measured exposure rather than unguarded participation.

Ultimately, Burry’s stance on SpaceX combines valuation skepticism with disciplined trade selection. While he flagged the company’s arguably excessive market capitalization, he did not identify a cost-effective way to express a short position through available options. His public comments contribute to an ongoing dialogue about how investors should weigh speculative enthusiasm against fundamentals and how option pricing can influence the feasibility of bearish strategies.

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