Table of Contents

• You might want to know


• Main Topic


• Key Insights Table


• Afterwards...

You might want to know

Will tokenized versions of mainstream securities like U.S. Treasuries and public stocks become a substantial portion of global markets by 2030?

Which market participants and technological building blocks are most likely to determine how quickly tokenization scales?

Main Topic

Tokenization—the process of representing real-world assets on distributed ledgers—is moving from experimentation toward broader commercial use, according to a detailed outlook produced by Citi. The bank estimates the current global market for tokenized real-world assets at roughly $17 billion today and anticipates significant expansion through 2030. Citi's central projection places the tokenized securities market at about $5.5 trillion by 2030, with a plausible range stretching from $2.7 trillion on the low end to $8.2 trillion if adoption accelerates faster than expected.

This forecast reflects three interlocking trends. First, legacy market infrastructure operators—central securities depositories, exchanges and clearinghouses—are incorporating tokenization into their core platforms rather than leaving it to niche startups. Major examples include the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announcing staged production trades of tokenized securities and planning broader rollouts, Nasdaq working on frameworks to issue blockchain-native shares, and Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the NYSE) exploring tokenized stock offerings. When established market utilities embed tokenized workflows into mainstream trading and settlement systems, Citi interprets that as a structural turning point for wider adoption.

Second, settlement innovation is advancing in parallel through the emergence of widely trusted digital cash instruments—principally regulated stablecoins and digital bank deposits. Stablecoins are expected to scale materially by 2030, with Citi estimating the market for these instruments could grow to about $1.9 trillion. Because many stablecoin issuers back their tokens with liquid assets such as U.S. Treasuries, stablecoin growth could itself create incremental demand for sovereign debt. Citi highlights a scenario where stablecoin expansion contributes roughly $1 trillion of new demand for U.S. government bonds. More importantly for market mechanics, stablecoins and tokenized assets enable atomic, on-chain settlement where asset transfer and payment finality happen simultaneously—reducing counterparty risk and shortening settlement windows.

Third, regulatory clarity and legislative progress—especially in the United States—are lowering barriers to market adoption. Recent committee actions and regulatory discussions point toward firmer frameworks for digital assets, which in turn can reassure institutional participants and market utilities contemplating production rollouts. Citi notes that as U.S. rules become clearer, institutions will be more willing to incorporate tokenized solutions into regulated trading and custody processes.

Where will tokenization concentrate? Citi expects primary traction in broadly traded, liquid public markets such as U.S. Treasuries and large-cap stocks, rather than in more fragmented or illiquid private markets. In its base case, the report assumes roughly 10% of the U.S. Treasury bill market and about 3% of U.S. public equity capitalization could be tokenized by 2030. Those adoption rates, combined with shifts in investor behavior—if roughly 10% of retail investors migrate to digital-native trading rails—could account for trillions in new demand for tokenized stocks and bonds. In contrast, complex and less liquid private markets—private equity and private credit—are expected to remain relatively small in tokenized form, each potentially reaching only about $100 billion globally by 2030.

Citi emphasizes that the transition will be gradual and heterogeneous. Rather than an abrupt replacement of legacy systems, tokenization will likely coexist with existing market plumbing for an extended period. The report draws a useful analogy to the adoption of vehicle electronic tolling: roads supported both cash lanes and electronic lanes for years, increasing complexity before a fuller migration occurred. Similarly, exchanges, custodians, clearinghouses and banks will maintain parallel processes while upgrading interfaces and operational models to support tokenized and traditional securities simultaneously.

A key commercial implication of this dual-run environment is the emergence of “Structural Orchestrators.” These entities—large banks, custodians or integrated platforms that control both asset inventories and payment rails—may gain competitive advantage by internalizing the entire tokenized trade lifecycle: issuance, trading, settlement and custody. By offering end-to-end execution inside a single network, orchestrators can capture margin, scale network effects, and reduce friction for clients. Their position could shape market structure, preferred standards and interoperability choices.

Operationally, tokenized securities also carry benefits and challenges. Potential upsides include faster settlement, improved transparency and programmable features that enable conditional payouts or automated corporate actions. Challenges include operational integration with legacy systems, legal and custodial frameworks for token ownership, cross-border regulatory coordination, and cyber and operational resilience for new ledger-based platforms. Market participants will need to weigh these trade-offs and invest in governance, standards and robust testing regimes before scaling production activity.

In sum, Citi’s analysis presents tokenization as more than a niche innovation: it’s positioned as a plausible structural evolution for mainstream capital markets. The pace of that evolution depends on coordinated progress across infrastructure providers, digital cash instruments and public policy. Should those vectors align, tokenized securities could represent a multi-trillion-dollar segment of markets within the next decade, reconfiguring settlement flows, trading venues and the competitive dynamics among large financial institutions.

Key Insights Table

Afterwards...

Looking ahead, the trajectory of tokenized securities will depend on technological interoperability, regulatory clarity, and the willingness of incumbents to embed ledger-based processes into core systems. If stablecoins and digital deposits scale and law-makers provide clear guardrails, tokenized assets could materially shorten settlement cycles, reduce friction and expand market access. Conversely, uneven regulation, operational setbacks, or fragmented standards could slow adoption and reinforce parallel legacy systems.

Market participants should monitor four focal points: (1) production launches and pilot outcomes from major infrastructure providers, (2) regulatory developments and legislation that define custody and issuance rights, (3) the growth and backing composition of trusted digital cash instruments, and (4) early commercial strategies from large financial institutions acting as potential Structural Orchestrators. These elements will collectively determine not only the size of the tokenized market by 2030 but also who captures the economic value as markets evolve.

In short, tokenization is positioned to be an important structural development in capital markets over the next decade, contingent on coordinated progress across technology, policy and institutional adoption.