Highlights

CoinShares believes that the digital asset treasury (DAT) bubble has largely deflated, with some valuations falling back to around 1x mNAV from 3x–10x in summer 2025. This reset poses two potential paths: an immediate sell-off or a recovery phase. The report recommends structural changes like reducing dilution and focusing on credible business models. James Butterfill suggests that a better macroeconomic climate and potential rate cuts could help stabilize the market.

Sentiment Analysis

• Overall, the report presents a cautiously optimistic view.
• CoinShares identifies current challenges but notes potential for recovery.
• The sentiment is influenced by improved macroeconomic conditions and possible rate cuts.
• Investors are urged to focus on sustainable business practices rather than speculative gains.

Article Text

The digital asset treasury (DAT) sector has experienced significant changes, as highlighted by CoinShares. In summer 2025, many companies saw their DAT valuations soar, some reaching three to ten times their market net-asset value (mNAV). However, recent trends show a decline, with mNAV values reduced to approximately 1x or below. The era of high speculation and inflated valuations appears to be cooling off, raising questions about what comes next for the DAT sector.

The CoinShares report examines potential paths forward: a disorderly sell-off or a more controlled hold-and-recover scenario. James Butterfill, the head of research, leans towards recovery. He attributes this view to improving macroeconomic conditions and the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December, factors that may provide a stabilizing force for digital assets.

A fundamental shift is needed in the DAT approach, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and credible business operations. CoinShares highlights the structural issues that need addressing, such as avoiding dilution and focusing on realistic business models that integrate digital assets as treasury management tools.

The report indicates a trend towards clearer categorization of digital asset strategies, potentially marking the transition from speculative treasuries to disciplined treasury management, investment vehicles, and strategic corporate use. Firms will need to embrace tighter governance and realistic market expectations to thrive in this evolving landscape.

Key Insights Table